Kev loj hlob Brazil ua rau Latin America

Thoob plaws hauv cheeb tsam Latin America, GDP kev loj hlob ze li ntawm tsuas yog 2%, raws li ECLAC.

Charles W. Thurston, Latin America Tus Sau Xov Xwm03.31.25 Nws

Brazil qhov kev thov muaj zog rau cov xim thiab cov khoom siv coatings tau nce 6% thaum xyoo 2024, qhov tseem ceeb ua rau ob npaug ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv lub tebchaws. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los, kev lag luam feem ntau tau tshaj GDP acceleration los ntawm ib lossis ob feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus, tab sis xyoo tas los, qhov piv tau nrawm, raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom tsis ntev los no los ntawm Abrafati, Associação Brasileira dos Fabricantes de Tintas.

"Lub Brazilian xim thiab coatings lag luam xaus 2024 nrog cov ntaub ntawv muag, tshaj tag nrho cov kev kwv yees muaj nyob rau hauv lub xyoo. Cov pace ntawm kev muag khoom nyob twj ywm nyob rau hauv lub xyoo nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov khoom kab, thawb tag nrho cov ntim mus txog 1.983 billion liters - 112 lab liters ntau tshaj li lub xyoo dhau los, sawv cev rau kev loj hlob ntawm 6.05% ib xyoo - 20%. outlier los ntawm kev lag luam, "relayed Fabio Humberg, Abrafati tus thawj coj de comunicação e relações institucionais, hauv email rau CW.

"Lub 2024 ntim - ntawm ze li ntawm 2 billion liters - sawv cev rau qhov zoo tshaj plaws tshwm sim nyob rau hauv lub keeb kwm series thiab twb ua Brazil ua lub ntiaj teb no tus thib plaub loj tshaj plaws producers, tshaj lub teb chaws Yelemees," Humberg soj ntsuam.

Kev loj hlob hauv cheeb tsam ze ze

Thoob plaws hauv cheeb tsam Latin America, GDP kev loj hlob ze li ntawm tsuas yog 2%, raws li United Nations Economic Commission rau Latin America thiab Caribbean (ECLAC). "Nyob rau xyoo 2024, cheeb tsam kev lag luam tau nthuav dav los ntawm kwv yees li 2.2%, thiab rau xyoo 2025, kev loj hlob hauv cheeb tsam yog kwv yees li ntawm 2.4%," tau hais txog ECLAC Economic Development Division cov kws tshuaj ntsuam nyob rau hauv Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America thiab Caribbean, tshaj tawm rau xyoo 2024.

"Txawm hais tias kev kwv yees rau 2024 thiab 2025 yog siab dua qhov nruab nrab rau kaum xyoo, kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam yuav nyob qis. Qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob rau kaum xyoo 2015-2024 sawv ntawm 1%, taw qhia rau qhov tsis zoo ntawm ib tus neeg GDP thaum lub sijhawm ntawd," tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau sau tseg. Cov teb chaws hauv cheeb tsam tab tom ntsib qhov ECLAC tau hu ua "qhov ntxiab ntawm lub peev xwm qis rau kev loj hlob."

Kev loj hlob sub-regional tsis sib xws, thiab cov qauv no txuas ntxiv mus, ECLAC qhia. "Ntawm theem subregional, ob qho tib si hauv South America thiab hauv pab pawg suav nrog Mexico thiab Central America, qhov kev loj hlob tau qeeb los ntawm ib nrab xyoo 2022. Nyob rau hauv South America, qhov kev poob qis dua thaum Brazil tsis suav nrog, vim tias lub teb chaws ntawd nce tag nrho subregional GDP kev loj hlob tus nqi vim nws qhov loj me thiab kev ua tau zoo dua; kev loj hlob yog nce nyob ntawm tus kheej noj. "

"Qhov kev kwv yees tsis muaj zog no qhia tau hais tias nyob rau lub sijhawm nruab nrab, Latin American thiab Caribbean kev lag luam 'kev koom tes rau kev loj hlob thoob ntiaj teb, qhia txog feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus, yuav luag ib nrab," daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia.

Cov ntaub ntawv thiab cov xwm txheej rau lub tebchaws tseem ceeb hauv Latin America ua raws.

Brazil

Qhov nce ntxiv ntawm kev noj cov xim thiab cov coatings hauv Brazil thaum xyoo 2024 tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm 3.2% kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam hauv lub tebchaws. GDP kev kwv yees rau 2025 yog qeeb qeeb, ntawm 2.3%, raws li kev kwv yees los ntawm ECLAC. World Bank projections zoo ib yam rau Brazil.

Los ntawm ntu kev lag luam xim, Brazil qhov kev ua tau zoo nyob thoob plaws lub rooj tsavxwm, coj los ntawm ntu tsheb. "Muaj kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov khoom kab los ntawm cov xim thiab coatings kev lag luam [thaum lub sij hawm 2024], feem ntau markedly nyob rau hauv lub tsheb OEM txheej, uas los ntawm heels ntawm ib tug muaj zog nce nyob rau hauv tsheb muag khoom," Abrafati hais.

Brazil kev muag khoom ntawm tsheb tshiab suav nrog tsheb npav thiab tsheb thauj khoom nce 14% hauv 2024 mus rau 10-xyoo siab, raws li Associacao Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veiculos Automotores (Anfavea). Kev muag khoom puv xyoo yog 2.63 lab lub tsheb hauv 2024, xa rov qab lub teb chaws mus rau lub ntiaj teb qeb duas ntawm yim loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam, raws li lub koom haum. (Saib CW 1/24/25).

"Lub tsheb ua kom tiav cov txheej txheem kuj pom kev muag khoom loj hlob ntawm tus nqi ntawm 3.6%, vim ob qho tib si nce hauv kev muag tsheb tshiab - uas muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev muag tsheb siv thiab kev siv nyiaj kho mob hauv kev cia siab ntawm cov muag khoom - thiab qib siab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom ntseeg siab," Abrafati tau pom.

Cov xim zoo nkauj kuj tseem ua kom pom kev ua tau zoo, nrog cov ntaub ntawv ntim ntawm 1.490 billion liters (nce 5.9% ntawm xyoo dhau los), Abrafati suav. "Ib qho ntawm cov laj thawj rau qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov xim pleev xim zoo nkauj yog kev sib sau ua ke ntawm cov qauv ntawm cov neeg saib xyuas lawv lub tsev, txhawm rau ua kom lawv muaj kev nplij siab, chaw nkaum thiab kev noj qab haus huv, uas tau nyob ib puag ncig txij li muaj kev sib kis," Abrafati tau hais.

"Ntxiv rau qhov kev hloov no yog qhov nce hauv kev ntseeg siab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, vim tias cov neeg siv khoom xav tias lawv muaj txoj haujlwm ntau dua thiab kev ruaj ntseg nyiaj tau los, uas yog qhov tseem ceeb rau lawv txiav txim siab siv cov xim tshiab ntawm lawv cov khoom," Abrafati tus thawj tswj hwm Luiz Cornacchioni piav qhia hauv daim ntawv.

Cov txheej txheem kev lag luam kuj tau tshaj tawm txoj kev loj hlob zoo, txhawb nqa los ntawm tsoomfwv cov kev txhim kho tau pib thaum xyoo 2023 los ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

"Lwm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm 2024 yog qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov txheej txheem kev lag luam, uas loj hlob hauv ntim ntau dua 6.3% piv rau 2023. Txhua ntu ntawm cov txheej txheem txheej txheej tau nthuav tawm kev loj hlob, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog ua tsaug rau kev muag khoom zoo ntawm cov neeg siv khoom ruaj khov thiab kev nce qib hauv cov phiaj xwm kev tsim kho (txhawb los ntawm cov xwm txheej zoo li xyoo xaiv tsa thiab cov ntawv cog lus tau txais txiaj ntsig rau kev lag luam ntiag tug tsis tau), "

Infrastructure yog lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb ntawm tsoomfwv Txoj Haujlwm Kev Loj Hlob Tshiab (Novo PAC), $ 347 nphom kev nqis peev uas tsom rau kev tsim kho vaj tse, kev tsim kho, thiab kev ua haujlwm ib puag ncig, uas yog lub hom phiaj los txhim kho txhua cheeb tsam ntawm lub tebchaws kom sib npaug (See CW 11/12/24).

"Novo PAC koom nrog kev sib koom tes zoo ntawm tsoomfwv thiab cov lag luam ntiag tug, xeev, nroog, thiab kev sib raug zoo hauv kev sib koom ua ke thiab cog lus rau kev hloov pauv ntawm ecological, neo-industrialization, kev loj hlob nrog rau kev sib raug zoo, thiab kev ruaj ntseg ib puag ncig," hais lub vev xaib thawj tswj hwm.

Cov neeg ua si loj tshaj plaws hauv cov xim, txheej thiab cov nplaum ua lag luam (NAICS CODES: 3255) suav nrog tsib, raws li Dunn & Bradstreet:
• Oswaldo Crus Quimica Industria e Comercio, nyob hauv Guarulhos, Sao Paulo xeev, nrog kev muag khoom txhua xyoo ntawm $ 271.85 lab.
• Henkel, nyob hauv Itapevi, Sao Paulo xeev, nrog $ 140.69 lab hauv kev muag khoom.
• Tua S/A Tintas e Adesivos, nyob hauv Novo Hamburgo, Rio Grande Do Sul xeev, nrog $129.14 lab muag khoom.
• Renner Sayerlack, nyob hauv Sao Paulo, nrog $ 111.3 lab hauv kev muag khoom.
• Sherwin-Williams ua Brasil Industria e Comercio, nyob hauv Taboao Da Serra, Sao Paulo xeev, nrog $ 93.19 lab muag khoom.

Argentina

Argentina, uas nyob sib ze Brazil ntawm Southern Cone lub teb chaws, npaj yuav rov qab muaj zog kev loj hlob ntawm 4.3% xyoo no ntawm pob taws ntawm 3.2% kev cog lus thaum xyoo 2024, feem ntau ua haujlwm ntawm kev coj noj coj ua ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Javier Milei. Qhov kev kwv yees GDP no los ntawm ECLAC tsis tshua muaj kev cia siab tias Lub Ntiaj Teb Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag kwv yees ntawm 5% kev loj hlob rau Argentina hauv 2025.

Lub sijhawm regrowth rau vaj tse nyob hauv Argentina yuav tsum swell thov rau architectural xim thiab coatings (Saib CW 9/23/24). Ib qho kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb hauv Argentina yog qhov kawg ntawm kev nce nqi xauj tsev thiab kev tswj xyuas lub sijhawm rau kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob. Thaum Lub Yim Hli 2024, Milei tau pov tseg 2020 Txoj Cai Rental uas tau tsim los ntawm tus qub
sab laug txoj cai.

Kev kho dua tshiab cov chav tsev uas tau rov qab los rau kev lag luam qhib tuaj yeem ua pov thawj txhawb rau cov txheej txheem tsim vaj tsev rau tus nqi ze li ntawm $ 650 lab los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2027 tom qab loj hlob ntawm qhov kev loj hlob txhua xyoo (CAGR) ntawm ib ncig ntawm 4.5% nyob rau hauv tsib lub xyoos ntawm 2022 thiab 2027, raws li kev tshawb fawb los ntawm IndustryARC.

Cov tuam txhab pleev xim thiab coatings loj tshaj plaws hauv Argentina, ib qho D&B, suav nrog:
• Akzo Nobel Argentina, nyob hauv Garín, Buenos Aires xeev, kev muag khoom tsis qhia tawm.
• Ferrum SA de Ceramica y Metalurgia, nyob hauv Avellaneda, Buenos Aires, nrog kev muag khoom ntawm $ 116.06 lab ib xyoos.
• Chemotecnica, raws li nyob rau hauv Carlos Spegazzini, Buenos Aires, kev muag khoom tsis qhia tawm.
• Mapei Argentina, nyob rau hauv Escobar, Buenos Aires, kev muag khoom tsis qhia tawm.
• Akapol, nyob rau hauv Villa Ballester, Buenos Aires, kev muag khoom tsis qhia tawm.

Colombia

Rov qab kev loj hlob hauv Colombia yog kwv yees rau 2025 ntawm 2.6% piv nrog 1.8% hauv 2024, raws li ECLAC. Qhov no yuav yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws rau cov
architectural ntu.

"Kev thov hauv tsev yuav yog tus tsav tsheb loj ntawm kev loj hlob nyob rau ob xyoos tom ntej. Cov khoom siv, uas pom ib feem rov qab los ntawm 2024, yuav nthuav dav hauv 2025 vim tias cov paj laum qis dua thiab cov nyiaj tau los tiag tiag," sau cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm BBVA hauv lub Peb Hlis 2025 qhov kev xav rau lub tebchaws.

Kev tsim kho vaj tse, uas pib boom, tseem yuav txhawb nqa kev thov rau cov txheej txheem kev lag luam. Cov dej num loj, zoo li lub tshav dav hlau Cartegena tshiab, tau npaj rau kev tsim kho pib thaum thawj ib nrab xyoo 2025.
"Tsoomfwv tau tsom mus rau kev tsim kho vaj tse, suav nrog kev thauj mus los, hluav taws xob thiab kev sib raug zoo (cov tsev kawm ntawv thiab tsev kho mob), yuav yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam zoo.

"Kev ua haujlwm hauv pej xeem txuas ntxiv ua rau xav tsis thoob los ntawm kev loj hlob 13.9% nyob rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm 2024 hauv nws cov kev hloov kho raws caij nyoog, tom qab tsib lub quarter sib law liag. Txawm li cas los xij, nws tseem yog qhov lag luam poob qis tshaj plaws hauv tag nrho kev lag luam, sawv 36% qis dua qhov kev sib kis ua ntej," Gleeds kws tshuaj ntsuam ntxiv.

Cov players loj tshaj plaws hauv kev ua lag luam raws li qeb duas los ntawm D&B yog cov hauv qab no:
• Compania Global de Pinturas, nyob hauv Medellin, Antioquia department, nrog $219.33 lab hauv kev muag khoom txhua xyoo.
• Invesa, nyob hauv Envigado, Antioquia, nrog $ 117.62 lab hauv kev muag khoom.
• Coloquimica, nyob hauv La Estrella, Antioquia, nrog $68.16 lab hauv kev muag khoom.
• Sun Chemical Colombia, nyob hauv Medellin, Antioquia. nrog $62.97 lab hauv kev muag khoom.
• PPG Industries Colombia, nyob hauv Itagui, Antioquia, nrog $ 55.02 lab hauv kev muag khoom.

Paraguay

Ntawm cov teb chaws hauv Latin America xav tias yuav loj hlob sai tshaj plaws yog Paraguay, uas tau npaj kom nthuav dav nws GDP los ntawm 4.2% xyoo no, tom qab kev loj hlob ntawm 3.9% xyoo tas los, ECLAC qhia.

"GDP hauv Paraguay kwv yees li $ 45 nphom thaum kawg ntawm 2024 hauv GDP cov nqe lus tam sim no. Saib ua ntej mus rau 2025, kev kwv yees qhia Paraguay 2025 GDP kwv yees yuav yog $ 46.3 billion. Kev lag luam ntawm Paraguay tau loj hlob ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 6.1% hauv plaub lub xyoos dhau los thiab yog qeb duas, qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam hauv Asmeskas. Tshaj tawm World Economics, London-based kws tshuaj ntsuam.

Kev tsim khoom me me tseem yog ib feem loj ntawm Paraguay kev lag luam. "BCP [Paraguay Central Bank] kwv yees tias [2025] yuav muaj kev vam meej rau kev lag luam hauv Paraguay, nrog rau kev tsom mus rau maquila sector (kev sib dhos thiab ua tiav cov khoom lag luam).
Infrastructure peev yuav ntxiv kev tsim khoom hauv Paraguay.

"Lub OPEC Fund rau Kev Txhim Kho Thoob Ntiaj Teb (Lub Ib Hlis) tshaj tawm tias nws tab tom muab $ 50 lab qiv nyiaj rau Paraguay los koom nrog kev kho dua tshiab, kho dua tshiab thiab kho txoj kev National Route PY22 thiab kev nkag mus rau sab qaum teb Paraguayan department ntawm Concepción.

Txoj kev thiab kev tsim tsev so tshiab yuav pab Paraguay nthuav dav nws txoj kev lag luam ncig tebchaws, uas tau loj hlob sai, nrog ntau dua 2.2 lab tus qhua, raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm Paraguayan Secretariat of Tourism (Senatur). "Cov ntaub ntawv, muab tso ua ke hauv kev koom tes nrog Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev tsiv teb tsaws chaw, qhia txog 22% nce ntxiv ntawm cov qhua tuaj txog piv rau 2023," Resumen de Noticias (RSN).

Lub Caribbean

Raws li ib cheeb tsam hauv cheeb tsam, Caribbean xav tias yuav loj hlob ntawm 11% xyoo no, piv nrog 5.7% hauv 2024, raws li ECLAC (Saib ECLAC GDP projection chart). Tawm ntawm 14 lub teb chaws uas suav tias yog ib feem ntawm lub cheeb tsam sub, Guyana yog pegged kom pom qhov txawv txav ntawm 41.5% xyoo no, piv nrog 13.6% hauv 2024, ua tsaug rau kev lag luam loj hlob sai ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv nyob ntawd.

Lub Tuam Txhab Nyiaj Txiag Ntiaj Teb tau tshaj tawm Guyana cov peev txheej roj thiab roj ntawm "tshaj 11.2 billion cov roj sib npaug sib npaug, suav nrog kwv yees li 17 trillion cubic feet ntawm cov roj av cuam tshuam." Ntau lub tuam txhab roj thoob ntiaj teb tau txuas ntxiv mus ua lag luam loj, uas ua rau xyoo 2022 pib ntawm cov roj ntau lawm hauv lub tebchaws.

Qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los yuav pab tsim qhov kev thov tshiab rau txhua ntu xim thiab txheej txheej. "Thaum, keeb kwm, Guyana GDP ib tus neeg yog qhov qis tshaj plaws hauv South America, kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2020, qhov nruab nrab 42.3% nyob rau peb lub xyoos dhau los, coj GDP ib tus neeg mus rau ntau dua $ 18,199 hauv 2022, los ntawm $ 6,477 hauv 2019," Lub Ntiaj Teb.
Bank qhia.

Cov xim loj tshaj plaws thiab cov coatings players hauv cheeb tsam sub, raws li Google AI tshawb nrhiav, suav nrog:
• Cov neeg ua si hauv cheeb tsam: Lanco Paints & Coatings, Berger, Harris, Lee Cua, Penta, thiab Royal.
• Cov tuam txhab thoob ntiaj teb: PPG, Sherwin-Williams, Axalta, Benjamin Moore thiab Comex.
• Lwm cov tuam txhab tseem ceeb suav nrog RM Lucas Co. thiab Caribbean Paint Factory Aruba.

Venezuela

Venezuela tau ua nom ua tswv nyob hauv Latin America tau ntau xyoo, txawm tias lub teb chaws muaj roj thiab roj nplua nuj, nyob rau hauv kev tswj hwm ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Nicolás Maduro. ECLAC kwv yees tias kev lag luam yuav loj hlob los ntawm 6.2% xyoo no, piv nrog 3.1% hauv 2024.

Thawj Tswj Hwm Trump tej zaum yuav cuam tshuam cov dej txias rau qhov kev kwv yees kev loj hlob nrog rau lub Peb Hlis lig tshaj tawm tias Tebchaws Meskas yuav them se 25% rau ib lub tebchaws uas tuaj yeem siv roj Venezuelan, uas suav txog kwv yees li 90% ntawm lub tebchaws kev lag luam.

Cov ntawv tshaj tawm se tau los ntawm qhov siab ntawm lub Peb Hlis 4 tshem tawm Chevron daim ntawv tso cai los nrhiav thiab tsim cov roj hauv lub tebchaws. "Yog tias qhov kev ntsuas no txuas ntxiv mus rau lwm lub tuam txhab - suav nrog Spain's Repsol, Ltalis's Eni, thiab Fabkis's Maurel & Prom - Venezuela kev lag luam tuaj yeem ntsib kev poob qis hauv cov roj crude, txo cov roj av, txo qis kev lag luam txawv teb chaws, kev poob qis, thiab kev nce nqi nce ntxiv," Caracas Chronicles hais.

Lub koom haum xov xwm hais txog qhov kev hloov pauv tsis ntev los no los ntawm Ecoanalítica, uas "txog 2% mus rau 3% kev cog lus hauv GDP thaum kawg ntawm 2025, nrog rau 20% poob hauv cov roj." Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam txuas ntxiv: "Txhua qhov cim qhia tau hais tias 2025 yuav nyuaj dua li qhov xav tau thaum pib, nrog rau lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev poob qis ntawm cov nyiaj tau los."

Ntawm cov thawj coj ntawm Venezuelan roj yog Tuam Tshoj, uas nyob rau hauv 2023 yuav 68% ntawm cov roj exported los ntawm Venezuela, raws li ib tug 2024 tsom xam los ntawm US Energy Information Administration, ceeb toom EuroNews. "Spain, Is Nrias teb, Russia, Singapore thiab Nyab Laj kuj yog ib lub teb chaws tau txais roj los ntawm Venezuela, tsab ntawv ceeb toom qhia," lub koom haum xov xwm tshaj tawm.

"Tab sis txawm tias Tebchaws Meskas - txawm tias nws raug nplua rau Venezuela - yuav cov roj los ntawm lub tebchaws ntawd. Lub Ib Hlis, Tebchaws Meskas tau xa cov roj 8.6 lab los ntawm Venezuela, raws li Census Bureau, tawm ntawm kwv yees li 202 lab cov thoob xa tuaj rau lub hli," EuroNews taw qhia.

Hauv tsev, kev lag luam tseem tab tom tsom rau kev txhim kho vaj tse, uas yuav tsum tau ua kom muaj kev thov rau cov xim vaj tsev thiab cov txheej txheem. Thaum lub Tsib Hlis 2024, tsoomfwv Venezuelan tau kos npe rau 13th hnub tseem ceeb ntawm nws txoj haujlwm Great Housing Mission (GMVV), ua kev zoo siab rau 4.9 lab lub tsev xa mus rau cov tsev neeg ua haujlwm, tshaj tawm Venezuelanalysis. Qhov kev zov me nyuam muaj lub hom phiaj ntawm kev tsim 7 lab lub tsev los ntawm 2030.

Thaum cov tub ua lag luam sab hnub poob tuaj yeem txaj muag txog kev nthuav dav hauv Venezuela, ntau lub tsev txhab nyiaj tau txhawb nqa kev tsim kho vaj tse, suav nrog Lub Tuam Txhab Kev Txhim Kho ntawm Latin America thiab Caribbean (CAF).